The U.S.-China Phase One Trade Agreement: A Dairy Scorecard
A scorecard sounds simple: promised versus delivered. For dairy under the U.S.-China Phase One agreement, building an honest one takes a bit of method, and it is worth learning how.
What is a scorecard, and why not just quote one?
This article does not publish a ready-made table of results, and it does not claim that a downloadable report exists. Figures change as data are revised, and the safest approach is to build your own from official sources. Any numbers you see elsewhere are as reported and should be checked at the named official source.
The terms of the agreement itself are on the U.S. Trade Representative site, which is the place to confirm what was actually committed. Without that, a scorecard is only a guess about what the target was.
Think of it like grading a student against the syllabus rather than against a friend's score. The commitment, the baseline and the data source all need to be written down before you start. Otherwise it is easy to adjust the standard after the results arrive.
What data do you need to build one?
Start with monthly U.S. dairy export data by product and destination from the U.S. International Trade Commission trade tools. Add the USDA's trade reporting from the Foreign Agricultural Service, and use the Economic Research Service for annual summaries and context.
Then decide on a clear comparison: a baseline year before the agreement, and the years after. Be consistent about whether you use volume or value, and whether you combine all dairy or separate cheese, whey, powders and fluid products.
A simple spreadsheet is enough. One column for the period, one for quantity, one for value, one for the average price per unit. Add a note column for events such as port delays or disease restrictions. After a few rows, patterns tend to appear.
- Pick a baseline period and stick to it
- Use quantity and value side by side
- Separate product categories
- Note any big shocks such as disease, shipping delays or currency swings
What else changes the results besides the agreement?
A good scorecard avoids attributing everything to policy. Exchange rates, world prices, disease outbreaks, shipping bottlenecks and demand shocks all move dairy exports. If China's own milk supply is up, imports drop regardless of tariffs.
Hypothetically, if exports to a country rise 20 percent in a year when world prices fell sharply, that could mean strong demand or simply cheap product. The agreement may or may not deserve the credit. Separate the signals before drawing conclusions.
How do supporters and critics read the same numbers?
Supporters of the deal argue that it gave exporters a clearer route into a large market and set expectations for purchases. Critics respond that purchase commitments are hard to enforce, that tariffs and retaliation cost farmers, and that exports may have recovered with or without the agreement.
Both camps can quote real data, which is why it is worth looking at the raw numbers yourself. The GAO and Congress.gov are places to look for independent reviews and legislative documents.
Neither side is obliged to be wrong. It is quite possible for exports to rise and for farmers to have been hurt by earlier disruptions, and a fair scorecard can hold both facts at the same time.
How would this show up in Texas?
A farm near Dumas does not ship to China. Its milk goes to a plant, and the plant sells into a market where Chinese demand is one factor in the price of whey, powders and some cheeses. The link is real but indirect, like a weather system that changes the wind a thousand miles away.
Your co-op can tell you how much of its product is exposed. The National Milk Producers Federation publishes statements and market analysis from the producer side, and our dairy guide covers the fundamentals of herd and feed cost control.
Texas has a growing ingredient sector, so whey proteins and cheese made in the state are part of the national export story. Whether the plant that takes your milk is part of that story is a good thing to ask your field representative.
What should you do with a scorecard?
Use it to ask better questions, not to predict. How concentrated is your buyer's export business? What would happen if a major market closed for a season? What does your budget look like if milk is lower for a year?
For risk planning, check Dairy Margin Coverage terms with your FSA office, and use farm finance worksheets to test cash flow. For reading with a lighter touch, the agribusiness page at farm.FM and the satire section are worth a visit, plus a farm.FM story on China and dairy trade. The Texas Department of Agriculture can point to export help.
And keep your own sense of proportion. A scorecard is a learning exercise. The decisions that matter most on a dairy, such as feed, herd health and debt, are still local ones, and they deserve most of your attention.
Sources and further reading
- USTR: U.S. Trade Representative
- U.S. International Trade Commission: tariff and trade data
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service: export markets and trade data
- USDA Economic Research Service: farm economy data and analysis
- GAO: government watchdog reports
- National Milk Producers Federation: dairy cooperatives and policy
Ask locally: Ask a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economist or your co-op market analyst to walk through the export data for the products your plant makes.